Running On Empty: Oil, Renewables & The New World Order
Who Holds the Cards? The US-China Summit, the Strait of Hormuz, and What It All Means for the Common Man
A conversation on The Sunday Draft with Raj and Varun
The Trump entourage was barely over its jet lag from a two-day whirlwind trip to Beijing when the commentary started pouring in. And the consensus, across independent podcasters, mainstream outlets, and even Fox News, was hard to ignore: China looked like they held all the cards.
This week on The Sunday Draft, Varun and I dug into what that summit really signaled — and why the ripples are being felt everywhere from the Strait of Hormuz to your grocery bill.
The Summit Nobody’s Really Talking About Honestly
Here’s what struck me: the US readout from the summit was a flurry of announcements — 200 Boeing aircraft deals, a handful of trade scraps — while China gave almost nothing away. President Xi made no specific commitments. The mystery stayed with China. And Trump, in a revealing interview with Hannity that’s been making the rounds, essentially said the quiet part out loud: Israel pushed us into this, and China is somehow going to help us find a way out.
That’s not the posture of someone holding the cards.
Varun offered an interesting counterpoint — that the summit may have been designed to plant a seed of doubt in Iran’s mind about whether China is truly their ally. If Iran starts second-guessing its support network, that’s leverage for the US. Smart move, if that’s what’s happening. But from the outside, it looks more like America showed up to the negotiating table needing something, while China smiled and said very little.
The most important undercurrent that likely never made it into any official readout? The war. Specifically: can Iran sustain this conflict without Chinese backing? That’s the real question. And the answer — reduce Chinese weapons, drones, or financial support to Iran in exchange for some future tacit understanding on Taiwan — is the kind of deal that never gets spoken aloud but probably hangs over every conversation.
The Strait, the Mines, and the Price We’re All Paying
The Strait of Hormuz went from an abstraction to a daily reality almost overnight. What used to see 120 to 170 ships a day is now down to two or three. Iran’s official position is that they haven’t closed it — they just don’t allow US-affiliated ships through. The US, meanwhile, has effectively extended that blockade far wider. Shadow fleets, ships going dark, vessels flying alternate flags — there are ways around it, but everyone’s more afraid of the US blockade than Iranian missiles.
And then there are the mines. Varun raised something I hadn’t fully thought through: even if peace broke out tomorrow, clearing sea mines from the strait would take months. Insurance companies won’t back voyages until the risk is truly gone. The damage to global supply chains doesn’t flip off like a switch.
Oil is above $100 a barrel. It’s not coming down anytime soon.
Who’s Actually Paying the Price
It’s never the people who started it.
The war, the blockade, the summit posturing — none of it was decided by the people who will feel it most. Oil above $100 a barrel doesn’t hurt oil executives. It hits the truck driver, the small business owner, the family adjusting their grocery budget. Inflation doesn’t negotiate. It just arrives.
And the further you are from power, the less warning you get.
Qatar is a vivid example of this. 90% of Qatar’s population is expats — Indian, Filipino, Pakistani, Bangladeshi workers who built the country. No Hormuz access means no natural gas exports. No gas exports means budget pressure. Budget pressure means hotels close, tourism collapses, and those workers get sent home. When the Middle East bleeds, India feels it — not just through oil prices, but through the labor market that supports millions of families.
The Energy Scoreboard Nobody’s Looking At
Here’s what a lot of the geopolitical chatter misses: some countries have been quietly solving this problem for decades.
Brazil started planning its energy independence back in 1973. Today they’ve nearly eliminated gasoline import dependency through a massive biofuel program built on sugarcane and corn. It took 50 years. They did it anyway.
Norway gets 98% of its electricity from hydropower. Nine out of ten new car sales are electric. They’re effectively immune to oil price shocks domestically — not because they’re idealists, but because importing oil through contested waters in winter was always a vulnerability they couldn’t afford.
France generates 68% of its electricity from nuclear. They made a decision, invested in the technology, and stuck with it.
And then there’s Germany — a cautionary tale. They phased out nuclear after Fukushima without a real replacement ready and fell into deep dependency on Russian gas. The clearest example of what happens when you retreat from clean energy without a plan.
India is in a fascinating middle position. Transportation Minister Nitin Gadgari drives a Toyota Mirai that runs on 100% hydrogen. Ethanol blending is already at 20% and climbing. But India also has to survive the next 10 years while those technologies scale — which means maintaining relationships with oil-producing nations and keeping passage through the strait open.
China’s Real Play
While everyone debates whether the summit was a win or a loss for Trump, China is positioning itself for a world that runs on something other than oil.
They’ve spent years building dominance in EV technology, solar manufacturing, and battery cells. As Varun put it: China doesn’t need you to be oil-independent. They need you to want to be oil-independent — so that you turn to them for the technology and the financing to get there. It’s patient, quiet, and extraordinarily effective geopolitics.
Contrast that with the US, which — as I kept pressing Varun — has relatively little to offer in the green technology space right now. Tesla isn’t the most advanced EV on the market. Chinese cars are. The US automotive industry still exports gas-guzzling trucks that fewer countries want. The US advantage in renewable energy probably lies in nuclear technology and uranium supply — and that may be exactly what appears in deals nobody’s announcing.
The Optimism/Pessimism Debate
Varun and I land in different places on this, and I think that tension is actually productive.
I tend toward pessimism — not because I think things can’t get better, but because complacency is what got us here. Nobody was thinking about the Strait of Hormuz six months ago. These geopolitical chokepoints were invisible to most people until they weren’t. The debt is rising. The cracks are widening. Politicians, whether Modi or Trump or anyone else, are mostly doing what wins the next election, not what builds the next generation.
Varun’s argument is that optimism isn’t the same as complacency. You can understand the full weight of what’s coming and still choose to wake up believing tomorrow can be better — because you’re doing the work today. Singapore’s Prime Minister recently told his labor unions to buckle up for stagflation: rising prices, stagnant jobs, a toxic combination. His message wasn’t despair. It was discipline.
Maybe the question isn’t pessimist versus optimist. Maybe it’s: what does the prepared person do?
What Can the Common Man Actually Do?
We closed on this, and I think it’s the right note to end on.
Vote based on qualifications and vision, not fear and rhetoric. Politicians are very good at making you afraid of the right things at the right time — immigration, war, inflation — and then offering themselves as the solution. That’s the game. The antidote isn’t cynicism; it’s being genuinely informed about what matters over a generation, not just a news cycle.
Invest carefully. In inflationary environments, the gap between what your savings earn and what things cost can widen fast. Holding cash in a savings account earning 3-5% while inflation runs higher than that means you’re losing ground even when you think you’re being responsible.
Reduce your dependency where you can. That’s not just an individual financial move — it’s a signal. Every household that shifts toward EVs, solar, or reduced consumption of fossil fuels is a small vote for the energy future that doesn’t depend on whose navy controls which strait.
And understand the chokepoints — the Straits of Hormuz that you don’t know about yet. The world is full of them: in supply chains, in financial systems, in technology dependencies. The people who see them early are the ones who aren’t caught off guard when they close.
This is a generational turning point. Not in a dramatic, end-of-history way — in the slow, grinding way that actually matters. The decisions being made right now about energy, trade, alliances, and technology will shape the next 50 years in the same way Brazil’s 1973 decision shaped their energy situation today.
The Sunday Draft is us trying to figure it out week by week. We’re not experts — just two people with a mic, an AI assistant to pull facts quickly, and a stubborn belief that the common man understanding these things actually matters.
See you next Sunday.
🎙️ Want the full conversation? Varun and I go deeper on the Iran war calculus, the India-UAE relationship, Microsoft’s bet on small nuclear reactors, and much more. Watch the full live episode on YouTube — The Sunday Draft
The Sunday Draft airs live on YouTube every Sunday. Follow along for weekly conversations on geopolitics, economics, and the things that actually affect everyday life.